Summary of the latest developments, courtesy of Bloomberg:
* * *
Update: 5:45pm: More relieved establishment Europeans chime in.
* * *
Update 4:45pm. According to Bloomberg, citing Pollster Maurice de Hond, one possible coalition of "most likely" parties includes: Liberals, D66, Christian Democrats and Christian Union. Nonetheless, Bloomberg also notes that while the Dutch may be first of the big three planned elections this year, but that doesn't mean they'll be first to have a government.
"Dutch coalitions are infamous for the length of time they take to form. The average has taken 72 days since World War II. The longest was 208 days -- a span that would take us past the German vote in September."
* * *
In a setback for Dutch firebrand Geert Wilders, and perhaps the entire European populist movement, the first Dutch exit polls from today's general election which resulted in a record 82% turnout, are out and his PVV, or Freedom Party, has only won 19 seats, tied with the Christian Democrats and Democrats 66 party, both of which also got 19 seats; the outcome is in line with polls that were predicting a sharp drop off in support for Wilders in recent days. The result will likely be a disappointment for Wilder whose Freedom Party took 24 seats in 2010. As for the winner: prime minister Mark Rutte's VVD, or Liberal Party, with 31 seats.
As Bloomberg puts it, Rutte's major victory is the result of "voters responding to Rutte’s plea to send a signal on halting the spread of populism." However it also warns that amid high turnout, Dutch TV is now warning that some voting booths are still open, meaning we have a long night ahead of us. That also means the next exit poll might not be as "definitive" as it could have been.
Another note: the biggest loser is the Labor Party of Jeroen Dijsselbloem, which isis headed for its worst result ever at just nine seats, compared to at least 23 in its previous worst showings. According to Dutch TV, this is the biggest slump in the vote for any party in Dutch election history, and reminiscent of what happened to the Liberal Democrats in Britain in 2015 according to Bloomberg.
The result, at least sarcastically, is that the Eurogroup may need a new leaders soon:
Wanted: new Eurogroup chairperson after party of @J_Dijsselbloem probably suffered biggest electoral defeat of any party in Dutch history
— Arne Petimezas (@APetimezas) March 15, 2017
* * *
Geert Wilders promptly took to Twitter, thanking his voters and warning Rutte that he "is not rid of me yet"
We hebben zetels gewonnen!
Eerste winst is binnen!
En Rutte is nog lang niet van mij af!!
— Geert Wilders (@geertwilderspvv) March 15, 2017
While we await more definitive results, here are the exit poll results in context, and how they compare to the 2012 election, according to IPSOS.
The seat projection based on the IPSOS exit poll reveals that four parties will be necessary for forming a government:
— Europe Elects (@EuropeElects) March 15, 2017
The full breakdown of the 13 parties that will comprise the new parliament:
According to the results, at least four parties will be required to make a majority in parliament, although it is now certain that, as expected, Wilders will now have no voice in whatever final coalition is formed.
In comments following the exit poll, Deutsche Bank FX analyst Sebastien Galy writes that with the Freedom Party’s tally seen by the Dutch exit poll on the low side, this will be seen as reducing the risk premium attached to the risk of France leaving the euro zone, as a result the Euro is likely poised for further gains, and indeed at last check the EURUSD was rising to session highs, now up 1.2% on the session to 1.0736.
More Blacklisted News...
Calling for Contributors!Got something to say?
We want to hear from you.
Submit your article contributions and participate in the world's largest independent online news community today!