SR FlashPoint Analysis 2012/1: History repeats itself, Dire straits in Hormuz

January 27, 2012

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Source: StratRisks

By: Michael Vail(Chief Editor of StratRisks)

Iran has set the stage for their own demise when they foolishly positioned themselves in the Straits of Hormuz. History has repeated itself once again and those who are students of history are patiently waiting for things to unfold as they should. From the Middle East to Middle America you can cut the tension with a knife. Iran has passed their Rubicon but no one is entirely sure how deep the ramifications will be felt and just how much they will reverberate and permeate autocratic leadership in the gulf.

The media sages are reading the tea leaves but the conversation has mostly been about the oil supply, the price of gas and how it would cripple the economies and impact the global supply chain. There is much more that is at stake. This directly affects the national security of most of the world, that in itself makes the normally lethargic leaders of the world quickly assess the situation and act. There has been a strong response by the United States and Europe, the USS Abraham Lincoln Strike Group has been deployed. Any rash actions by Iran or the United States could lead to war and the destabilization of the entire region.

The leadership in Iran has been pushed to make their absurd movements due to attacks on their currency, nuclear scientists and uranium enrichment facilities. As of late many of their nuclear scientists have been killed and disappeared like Enoch in the bible. The idea of covert warfare is to be able to deny that it ever took place, but when Iran downs a UAS drone belonging to the United States and then Washington wants it returned it is obvious to everyone what is going on.

Iran wants to dominate and influence the entire Middle East and it has to a large degree in Iraq. Iran seeks nuclear weapons to keep foreign powers at bay. The United States treats those who are members of the nuclear club must differently than those who aren’t part of the club, just look at North Korea. North Korea is treated respectfully and countries like Iraq and Iran are slapped constantly by the iron fist in the velvet glove. Saudi Arabia is working with Pakistan to acquire nuclear weapons, and this will lead to a nuclear arms race. The ‘Department of Defense’ is giving everyone schoolyard bully syndrome, instead of stopping nuclear proliferation they are increasing it with reckless thuggery.

History has a way of biting us in the rear end. Iran’s actions are very reminiscent of Egypt’s blockade of the Straits of Tiran which lead to the Suez Canal crisis:

“The Egyptian President, Colonel Gamal Abdel Nasser, announces the Egyptian nationalisation of the Suez Canal and its operating Suez Canal Company in retaliation to the reneging of an agreement by the American and British Governments to finance the construction of the Aswan Dam. The Suez Canal represented the main source of supply of oil for Britain and France and the potential loss of those supplies represented an economic threat that they could ill ignore.” –University of Oxford

The actions of Gamal Abdel Nasser lead to the 6 day war between Israel and Egypt, Syria and Jordan. This should have served as a valuable history lesson, yet Iran is moving towards its own destruction. Syria is in the midst of a bloody civil war and Jordan has been influenced by the Arab Spring. Israel is already on the warpath, so if Iran decides to block shipments of Crude or makes any aggressive actions there will be no other recourse but war. Iran’s currency has hit a record low so there will be pressure from their people and external pressure from foreign powers. Will Iran crack under the pressure or come to their senses?

If there any outbreak of violence gas prices will spike and there will be pressure from Americans to get things under control. In this scenario Washington leadership may blink and the Iranian propaganda arm will claim victory. If Iran is hit by air strikes and their government is not decapitated they still consider it a victory. This makes for a difficult undertaking. The true goal is that the Iranian people will revolt without anyone firing a shot or dropping a bomb. The red lines and possible scenarios have been drawn. We will be monitoring the situation as it develops.