Which countries are at the highest risk of a coup d’état this upcoming year? While in any individual country a coup seems highly unlikely at any given time, this map fromdartthrowingchimp shows the relative risks each country faces from a revolution instigated by its own armed forces.
The above heat map sorts the world by fifths into various levels of risk. The map’s creator, Jay Ulfelder, says that at around 80% of the countries which undergo coup attempts this year are likely to fall into the uppermost category (red). Meanwhile, this chart plots the unweighted average of two different forecast models to determine the “single-best” forecast of the risk of a coup.
Wouldn’t want to be in Guinea.
So here’s the process Ulfelder used: First, he amalgamated the number of previous coups using two data sets representing countries with any successful or any failed coups. He then incorporated over a dozen variables (ranging from the age of the country and political stability to economic growth and regime type) to determine the overall risk in 2014 of a coup in each country. The result was this worrying map. An improved version highlights just those countries in the highest-risk two fifths, singling out Asia and Africa as the least stable places for governance.
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