The next US president will "inherit the most complex, difficult and dangerous array of foreign policy challenges ever facing a newcomer to the Oval Office," writes Strobe Talbott, president of the Brookings Institution, in the autumn edition of Internationale Politik (IP).
"Polls taken in recent years show a precipitous decline in respect for and trust in the USA," says Talbott. These two essential ingredients for leadership of the international community, he argues, "have been severely damaged during the administration of George W. Bush," owing to the fact that it has backed away from international agreements such as the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court and the Kyoto Protocol.
In spite of this, he states that the next president will have several advantages to capitalise upon in the first months of 2009, namely "a grace period with international public opinion and the potential for significant improvement in transatlantic relations".
As for the EU, he says ratification of the Lisbon Treaty will have an equally important role to play in strengthening transatlantic relations, because it will "enhance Europe's ability to speak with a single, clearer voice". "A more assertive European Union will be a positive factor in the emergence of more effective structures of global cooperation – a goal that the next American president must reinstate with urgency and conviction," he argues.
On top of this, Talbott says that the USA must make a "concerted effort to reaffirm American dedication to international law and multilateral institutions". The two most important multilateral initiatives that the next president must take to restore the USA's credibility as an international leader are to "rescue the nuclear nonproliferation regime and avoid a catastrophic tipping point in the process of climate change," he maintains.
The author believes the USA carries a great deal of responsibility here owing to the fact that it is the "most heavily armed nuclear weapons state and it has been, until recently [when it was overtaken by China], the largest producer of greenhouse gases". "It is the only country that has the capacity to lead the multilateral effort necessary to cope with both challenges," he contends.
Even though the author admits that will be extremely difficult for the next US president to simultaneously grapple with proliferation and climate change, he insists that "it is not asking too much given the consequences of failure". Moreover, he adds that greater public awareness of the dangers "might help galvanise support for the necessary remedies, sacrifices and trade-offs".
Talbott concludes by calling on both sides of the Atlantic to recognise that "meeting the two challenges of nonproliferation and climate change is not merely very important but truly urgent".
