The spotlight turns to US data and Fed speakers ahead of the Fed blackout period this week. The BoE and SNB meet to decide policy but consensus expect no change from either. Elsewhere we get inflation data from the US, UK, Sweden & EZ (F), Q2 GDP from NZ & SW and labor market data from the UK & AU.
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Starting with the economic data, it’s a super quiet start to the week today outside of the Fed speak detailed below with no real significant data due to be released.
Tomorrow kicks off in China where the August data dump is due including retail sales, fixed asset investment and industrial production. During the European session tomorrow we’ll get the final August CPI revisions in Germany along with the September ZEW survey. There’s important data due to be released in the UK tomorrow too with the August CPI/RPI/PPI readings due. In the US tomorrow we’ll get the August NFIB small business optimism reading, along with last month’s monthly budget statement.
We start in Japan on Wednesday where the final revision to industrial production in July will be made. We then move onto France where the final August CPI revisions are made before the UK comes under the spotlight again with the latest employment report. Euro area industrial production in July will also be released. It’s quiet once again in the US on Wednesday with the only data due being the import price index for August.
It’s a busier day all round on Thursday. In Europe we’ll again get more important data out of the UK, this time in the form of the August retail sales data. Euro area trade data and the final August CPI number will also be released before all eyes turn to the BoE meeting at midday. During the afternoon session in the US we’ll get August retail sales, Philly Fed business outlook in September, PPI in August, initial jobless claims, empire manufacturing in September, industrial and manufacturing production in August and business inventories in July. So hold your breath for that one. Closing the week on Friday there’s little to highlight in Asia or Europe. In the US however we’ll get the August CPI report along with a first look at the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey for September.
US data and speakers come into the spotlight this week after last week's underwhelming ECB and with markets increasing Fed hike probabilities following comments on Friday by several Fed speakers. Fed Governor Brainard's speech right before the start of the Fed's blackout period has already captured the market's attention and will be a key focus.
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Away from the data, with the FOMC blackout period taking effect from Tuesday the Fedspeak is frontloaded to today. Lockhart and Kashkari are both speaking, but most significantly the uber dovish Brainard is scheduled to speak at 1.15pm Chicago time. Away from that the ECB’s Lautenschlager speaks tomorrow and the EU’s Juncker speaks on Wednesday.
The following BofA tables summarizes the week's global events:
Focusing just on the US:
And the full US weekly event breakdown courtesy of Goldman:
Monday, September 12
- 08:05 AM Atlanta Fed President Lockhart (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Dennis Lockhart will speak about monetary policy and the economic outlook at the National Association for Business Economics’ national meeting in Atlanta, Georgia.
- 01:00 PM Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari will participate in a discussion about the U.S. economy and too-big-to-fail at the St. Paul Building Owners and Managers Association's Thought Leader Seminar and the St. Paul Port Authority’s Expert Forum in St. Paul, Minnesota. Audience Q&A is expected.
- 01:15PM Governor Brainard (FOMC voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Board Governor Lael Brainard will discuss the economic outlook and monetary policy at an event titled, “Beyond Interest: The Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy” at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs in Chicago, Illinois. Audience and media Q&A is expected. Governor Brainard wrote down a one-hike baseline for 2016 in June.
Tuesday, September 13:
- 06:00 AM NFIB small business optimism index, August (consensus 94.8, last 94.6)
- 02:00 PM Monthly budget statement, August (consensus -$105.5bn, last -$112.8bn): Consensus expects the federal budget deficit declined to -$105.5bn in August.
Wednesday, September 14
- 08:30 AM Import price index, August (consensus -0.1%, last +0.1%): Consensus expects the import price index to decline by 0.1% in August. Last month, the headline index advanced for the fifth straight month despite a softening in imported fuel prices.
Thursday, September 15
- 8:30 AM Retail sales, August (GS -0.2%, consensus -0.1%, last flat); Retail sales ex-auto, August (GS +0.2%, consensus +0.2%, last -0.3%); Retail sales ex-auto & gas, August (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.3%, last -0.1%); Core retail sales, August (GS +0.2%, consensus +0.4%, last flat): We expect headline retail sales to soften by 0.2%, reflecting lower gasoline prices and soft auto sales figures in August. Core retail sales are likely to increase by 0.2% after a flat July print.
- 08:30 AM PPI final demand, August (GS +0.1%, consensus +0.1%, last -0.4%); PPI ex-food and energy, August (GS flat, consensus +0.1%, last -0.3%); PPI ex-food, energy, and trade, August (GS flat, consensus +0.1%, last flat); We expect PPI ex-food, energy, and trade to remain flat, and for headline PPI to increase by 0.1%. Last month, PPI was much softer than anticipated, with the headline index falling by 0.4% while prices ex-food and energy fell by 0.3%.
- 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended September 3 (GS 265k, consensus 265k, last 259k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended August 27 (consensus 2,150, last 2,144k): We expect initial jobless claims to edge up to 265k after moving down to 259k last week. The largest decline in claims was in Louisiana after two weeks of elevated claims following the recent flooding along the Gulf Coast. California and Illinois reported the largest increases in claims.
- 08:30 AM Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, September (GS 0, consensus 1.0, last 2.0): We expect the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey to remain at 0 in September. Last month, the Philly Fed index signaled a modest expansion in manufacturing activity, although the majority of the report’s underlying components softened.
- 08:30 AM Empire manufacturing survey, September (consensus -1.0, last -4.2): Consensus expects a modest pickup in the Empire manufacturing survey, after a slight miss in the August report.
- 08:30 AM Current account balance, Q2 (consensus -$120.8bn, last -$124.7 bn)
- 09:15 AM Industrial production, August (GS -0.2%, consensus -0.2%, last +0.7%); Manufacturing production, August (GS -0.3%, consensus -0.3%, last +0.5%); Capacity utilization, August (GS 75.7%, consensus 75.7%, last 75.9%): We expect that industrial production declined by 0.2% (mom) in August after a 0.7% gain in July, due to softer utilities output and lower motor vehicle manufacturing.
- 10:00 AM Business inventories, July (consensus +0.1%, last +0.2%): Consensus expects a 0.1% rise in inventory levels in July, following a 0.2% gain in June.
Friday, September 16
- 08:30 AM CPI (mom), August (GS +0.12%, consensus +0.1%, last +0.22%); Core CPI (mom), August (GS +0.17%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.09%); CPI (yoy), August (GS +1.0%, consensus +1.0%, last +0.8%); Core CPI (yoy), August (GS +2.2%, consensus +2.2%, last +2.2%): We expect that core CPI rose by 0.17% in August, following a soft 0.09% increase in July. On a year-on-year basis, core CPI likely rose by 2.2%, in line with last month. We estimate headline consumer prices increased by 0.12% last month, at a slower pace than July due to softer food and energy prices. On a year-on-year basis, the headline index likely increased by 1.0%.
- 10:00 AM University of Michigan consumer sentiment, September preliminary (GS 91.5, consensus 90.6, last 89.8): We expect the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index to improve in the September preliminary estimate, following last month’s slight decline.
Source: Deutsche, BofA, Goldman